Flooding Rain Threat and Isolated Severe Weather Tuesday

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Posted by: Staff
Date: Nov 18 2024 9:59 AM

Bottom Line:

A cold front will move into the area beginning Tuesday night bringing heavy rainfall and marginally severe weather to the tri-state area. Hazards include instances of flash flooding, strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two. A minor threat for coastal flooding appears possible along the coastal FL Big Bend Monday night and Tuesday night with the high tide cycle.

Overview:

A strong cold front is expected to move into the forecast area beginning Tuesday evening bringing impactful weather with it. An anomalously moist air mass will accompany it as the remnants of Tropical Storm Sara move north toward the area resulting in heavy rainfall across the region. Rainfall amounts across SE AL and the FL Panhandle range from 2-4", tapering off to around 1-2" for the FL Big Bend and SW GA. Given the higher amounts across the western portion of the forecast area, flash flooding concerns are increasing particularly for our coastal FL Panhandle counties at this time. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall has been outlined by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) for most of the FL Panhandle where locally higher amounts up to 4-7" of rainfall appear possible. SE AL, SW GA, and the easternmost FL Panhandle are outlined in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. 

A severe weather threat also exists with the arrival of this cold front. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) covering portions of our SE AL counties and the western FL Panhandle. The main concerns at this time are strong to severe wind gusts with some of the stronger storms, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out particularly across our coastal FL Panhandle counties. 

 

Lastly, a chance for minor coastal flooding appears possible along the coastal FL Big Bend due to prolonged and strong onshore winds. The timing for this will be Monday night and again Tuesday night, lining up with the high tide cycle. 

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