Changes from last brief:
–Tropical Depression #9 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaias.
–The track has shifted slightly to the east.
–Isaias is forecast to steadily strengthen into a hurricane overnight.
–Isaias is moving east at 8 mph. An east/northeast motion will continue then a northeast and north turn is expected Thursday as it strengthens into a hurricane.
–Impacts to the northeast Gulf coast are likely on Friday with impacts continuing into Saturday and possibly Sunday.
–SE Alabama, including Coffee County, has been placed in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather on Saturday.
–IN FLORIDA: Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches have just been issued for parts of the Florida Panhandle.
TRENDING UP:
–The chance of tropical storm force winds. There is a 3 in 10 to 4 in 10 chance (30 to 40%) of experiencing tropical storm force winds in our area. These are sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive Friday evening, beginning with the Gulf Coast. There is still considerable uncertainty in timing.
—For those with interests in the Florida Panhandle, the probabilities for hurricane force winds have increased over the last 12 hours. There is a 1 in 10 to 2 in 10 chance (10-20%) of seeing hurricane force winds.
TRENDING NEUTRAL:
–The extent of impacts. Right now, we’re watching for the possibility of excessive rain and storms/tornadoes on Friday/Saturday.
–We don’t know where the heaviest rainfall will occur, but rainfall amounts could be anywhere from 2-6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6-10 inches.
–How “big” will the storm get? We don’t know, but we expect there to be a large wind field extending well outside the storm.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with Isaias. Our next update will be no later than tomorrow morning, although we will send an update this afternoon if there are any significant changes.
Any questions, give us a call.
GL
Grant Lyons
Director
Coffee County Emergency Management Agency
