EMA DIRECTOR CHRIS JUDAH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEKRICKEY STOKES
Posted by: RStokes
Date: Feb 17 2019 12:53 PM
Several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall will affect the area next week, especially fromTuesday to Saturday. Rain totals of 6-9 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. This could result in a potentially high end flood event across the Tennessee Valley.
- None at this time.
- A Flood Watch will likely be necessary next week.
- River Flood Warnings are likely next week due to heavy rain and runoff.
Impact 1: Heavy Rain
- Rainfall totals of 5-9 inches are expected by Friday next week with locally higher amounts possible.
- There are slight differences in the timing of when the heaviest rainfall will occur Tue/Wed or Wed/Thur. However, all guidance is still suggesting rainfall amounts upwards of 9+ inches possible.
- Saturated soils will make most of the rain entirely runoff, enhancing the areal and flash flood threat.
Impact 2: River Flooding
- Area rivers are forecast to go into moderate to major flood, including the Tennessee River.
- Any river flooding is expected to continue well into next week.
- In conversations and coordination with TVA these rainfall totals would put river levels at a minimum equal to what we had with the Christmas 2015 flood. (Resulted in a Major Disaster Declaration for 25 Counties)
- Since much of this rainfall will impact the entire TN River system,there is potential that river levels end up above what we saw with the Christmas 2015 flood and actually might be closer to the 2003 flood.
Impact 3: Thunderstorms
- A few thunderstorms are possible from Tuesday to Friday next week.
- Rain will be heavier in any thunderstorms, leading to potentially higher rain totals.
- Gusty winds are possible with any of the strongest storms.
Impact 4: Next Saturday
- (7-day Forecast) Models are starting to indicate another round of showers and possibly stronger storms next Saturday.
- This is still far out but given the potential for flooding followed by a round of stronger storms we wanted to just mention the possibility.
- Any rainfall from this round will only make flooding worse.
Graphic to follow.